Growth plan for Lion Pose, 8 Oct 2026
Scale spend. Hold CAC.
Lion Pose already has proof: 145 reviews on PEP TALK and a 60 Day Money-Back Guarantee. The plan turns that into a steady flow of new ads and creator videos, spends $24,000 on tests first, and stops anything that breaks the $54.24 CAC line.
- Target CAC
- $54.24
- New ads a week at peak
- 20
- Creators live by week six
- 10
- Test spend, six weeks
- $24,000
Contents
10 chapters, then the gates and every number’s source.
01 The number
One number: hold CAC at $54.24 while spend scales
The number is target CAC: $54.24. It is 0.6 of the $90.40 ceiling, which comes from a $113 average order, 40% margin and one repeat order. Those inputs are my guesses until your data replaces them. Every test answers to this line.
Protect
Target CAC: $54.24 on a first purchase
Ceiling = average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders): $113 × 40% × (1 + 1) = $90.40. Guard line = 0.6 × $90.40 = $54.24. Across the ranges: $15.75 to $279.45.
Three moves
- Kill any ad that crosses the guard line before it earns a second week of spend.
- Move budget only to concepts that clear $54.24, in steps, never in one jump.
- Report daily CAC so a drift shows within a day, not at the end of the month.
- reviews on PEP TALK Barrier Repair Cream
- 145
- Published
- reviews on UNSPOTTED 4X Acid Jelly Night Serum
- 75
- Published
- day money-back guarantee
- 60
- Published
02 Variety
Twelve new ads a week, each built on one Lion Pose product
Each ad concept carries one claim, one product and one proof. UNSPOTTED 4X, UNGHOSTED SPF 42 and PEP TALK each have their own reviews and their own published study wording, so no concept borrows another's proof. One variable per test.
| Reason to buy | Proof you already have | Ads (proposed) |
|---|---|---|
| Reviews that add up | 145 Reviews | 4 |
| Sheer mineral SPF | The sheerest form of zinc oxide that minimizes white cast and is reef-safe | 4 |
| Clinical dark spot results | 94% saw their dark spots fade | 3 |
| Bundle savings | $40 OFF 3-PRODUCT BUNDLE | 3 |
| 100% vegan ingredients | 100% vegan ingredients. Never tested on animals. | 2 |
| 60-day risk-free trial | Try It Risk-Free for 60 Days | 1 |
| Tested on every skin tone | Tested on 30 people, every skin tone | 1 |
| Total | The ad concepts tab | 18 |
Each row is a reason to buy that the brand already has proof for. The count is how many of the ads carry it: a reason with a single ad is a bet, not a pattern, and the next batch of concepts moves toward the reasons that win.
03 Disturbances
Seven risks, including a 60 Day Money-Back Guarantee on bundles
| Disturbance | Likelihood | Impact | Owner | Gate (proposed) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bundles show few reviews (THIRST TRAP has 1), so bundle ads lack proof | High | Med | Me | Bundle ads cite single-product proof; compare them to product ads by week three |
| The 60 Day Money-Back Guarantee drives refunds that erode payback | Med | High | Both | Refunds tracked weekly; pause bundle spend if they break the payback rule |
| Creator claims drift from the study wording Lion Pose publishes | Med | High | Me | Every creator video checked against the claims sheet before it posts |
| Event tracking misses subscription orders, so CAC reads wrong | Med | High | Your team | Order counts match between store and ad platform within one week of launch |
| Creators skip the SPF line when showing the AHA serum UNSPOTTED 4X | Low | Med | Me | No UNSPOTTED 4X video posts without the daily SPF reminder the brand states |
| Free shipping starts over $75, so single products carry shipping cost | Med | Med | Your team | Compare CAC on orders over and under $75; cut spend on the weaker group |
| Hit rate runs below my guess, so winners arrive late | Med | High | Me | If two winners are not found by the second gate, stop scaling and rebuild hooks |
Scores are my read from outside the company, re-scored in week one with your data. Each risk has one owner and one gate that can be checked with a number, so nobody has to argue about whether it happened.
04 The ceiling
The $90.40 ceiling is a guess until week one replaces it
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Average order | $113 (range $30.00–$207.00) | Assumption Range from the site product prices (Published); the midpoint is a guess |
| Gross margin | 40% (range 35–45%) | Assumption Replace in week one |
| Repeat orders after the first | 1 (range 0.5–2) | Assumption Replace with cohort data in week one |
| Margin per customer, all orders | $90.40 | Calculated Average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders) |
| Guard line for CAC | $54.24 | Calculated 0.6 × the margin per customer |
The math, with the assumed lines
Ceiling = average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders): $113 × 40% × (1 + 1) = $90.40. Guard line = 0.6 × $90.40 = $54.24. Across the ranges: $15.75 to $279.45.
Range across the assumptions: $16 to $279.
The $90.40 ceiling mixes my guesses: $113 order, 40% margin, one repeat order. The guard line is $54.24. Week one replaces the guesses with your real numbers.
The ceiling is a range, not one number: the most a new customer can cost before shipping and packaging, which I do not have. Replace the guessed lines with yours and every figure below recalculates.
05 Test ramp
$24,000 of tests over six weeks, ads scaling from 12 to 20
| Week | New ads × budget / ad (proposed) | Weekly test spend | Cumulative | Creators posting | CAC target (proposed) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 × $250 | $3,000 | $3,000 | 0 | $54 |
| 2 | 12 × $250 | $3,000 | $6,000 | 2 | $54 |
| 3 | 12–20 × $250 | $4,000 | $10,000 | 4 | $54 |
| 4 | 12–20 × $250 | $4,000 | $14,000 | 6 | $54 |
| 5 | 20 × $250 | $5,000 | $19,000 | 8 | $54 |
| 6 | 20 × $250 | $5,000 | $24,000 | 10 | $54 |
Weeks one and two run 12 ads each at $250, $6,000 cumulative. Weeks three and four run 12–20 ads, $4,000 each. Weeks five and six run 20 ads, $5,000 each. Total $24,000 of tests, all Proposed.
The math. Week 1: 12 × $250 = $3,000; Week 2: 12 × $250 = $3,000; Week 3: 16 × $250 = $4,000; Week 4: 16 × $250 = $4,000; Week 5: 20 × $250 = $5,000; Week 6: 20 × $250 = $5,000. Total $24,000 (96 ads × $250). A range such as 12–20 counts as its midpoint.
Weeks one and two test what the brand already has, rewritten per reason to buy. From week three, creator videos enter paid only after they beat their own account median. A range of new ads counts as its midpoint in the spend column.
06 Volume
More concepts find more winners: 20 concepts to 80
20 concepts give 2 winners and $18,000 added a month; 80 concepts give 8 winners and $72,000. Hit rate and spend per winner are Assumptions. More concepts lower the odds that one bad hook sets your CAC.
| Concepts tested / month | Hit rate (assumed) | New winners / month | Spend each winner holds (assumed) | Added spend at target CAC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 10% | 2 | $300 / day | $18,000 / month |
| 40 | 10% | 4 | $300 / day | $36,000 / month |
| 60 | 10% | 6 | $300 / day | $54,000 / month |
| 80 | 10% | 8 | $300 / day | $72,000 / month |
The math. 20 concepts × 10% = 2 winners × $300 × 30 days = $18,000 a month; 40 concepts × 10% = 4 winners × $300 × 30 days = $36,000 a month; 60 concepts × 10% = 6 winners × $300 × 30 days = $54,000 a month; 80 concepts × 10% = 8 winners × $300 × 30 days = $72,000 a month.
The hit rate and the spend each winner holds are placeholders. The first thirty days of tests replace them with real numbers, and the table is recalculated the same day.
07 Allocation
How the $100,000 splits once UNSPOTTED 4X or PEP TALK wins
- Scaling winners that hold $54.24 CAC
- $45,000
- 45%
- Creative tests, the $24,000 ramp
- $24,000
- 24%
- Creator pay and product seeding
- $19,000
- 19%
- Landing pages and reporting
- $12,000
- 12%
Proposed split of the $100,000; the 24% for tests matches the $24,000 ramp, and winners get the rest only once they hold CAC.
The math. 45% × $100,000 = $45,000; 24% × $100,000 = $24,000; 19% × $100,000 = $19,000; 12% × $100,000 = $12,000. Sum 100% = $100,000.
This split is a proposal. It moves toward scaling as winners prove out, and toward testing when fatigue shows.
08 Channels
Meta first, because the 75-review serum needs fast creative tests
| Channel | Open when (proposed) | Why wait |
|---|---|---|
| Meta | Week one | Fast creative tests for the serum, SPF and cream |
| TikTok | After Meta finds two winners | Creator videos made for Meta can be reused |
| YouTube Shorts | After TikTok holds the guard line | The same creator cuts reach routine-minded skincare viewers |
| When a winner has proven photos | 3-step routine images suit saved skincare searches | |
| Email and SMS | When Meta CAC holds for two weeks | Subscribe & Save offers need a repeat-order flow |
A channel opens when its condition is true, not when the calendar says so. Until then the budget stays where the CAC is earned.
09 Payback
At a $100 CAC the first order never pays back: we stop
Payback is the real constraint. At a $25 CAC the first order covers cost with $65.40 left. At $55 it needs repeat orders, leaving $35.40. At $100 and $125 it never pays back, so we stop. Subscribe & Save orders matter here.
Cumulative margin per customer, order by order, before CAC: $45.20, $90.40.
| CAC (scenario) | First-order margin | Year-one margin | Left after CAC | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $25 | $45.20 | $90.40 | $65.40 | First order |
| $55 | $45.20 | $90.40 | $35.40 | After repeat orders |
| $100 | $45.20 | $90.40 | −$9.60 | Never: stop |
| $125 | $45.20 | $90.40 | −$34.60 | Never: stop |
The math. CAC $25: $90.40 − $25 = $65.40 left; pays back: First order; CAC $55: $90.40 − $55 = $35.40 left; pays back: After repeat orders; CAC $100: $90.40 − $100 = −$9.60 left; pays back: Never: stop; CAC $125: $90.40 − $125 = −$34.60 left; pays back: Never: stop.
Read each row left to right: the margin of the first purchase, the margin over the whole horizon, what is left after CAC, and the purchase on which the CAC is earned back. A scenario that never pays back is a stop, not a test.
10 Scope
What I cover on Lion Pose, and what stays with your team
Covers
- Meta ad concepts, hooks and weekly test calls
- Creator sourcing, briefs and the ten-creator roster
- Landing page briefs for each winning product
- Daily CAC, weekly learnings and monthly cohort payback
Doesn’t
- Event tracking build; I spec it, your team ships it
- Product formulation, clinical claims and legal review
- Fulfilment, shipping and customer support
- Your ad account access until you grant it
What this plan covers is what I can change inside the ad account and the creator program. Everything outside it is named on the right so nobody assumes it is handled.
Gates, written before spend, so stopping isn’t a negotiation.
| Day | Keep going if (proposed) | Stop or change if |
|---|---|---|
| Day 14 | Twelve ads live each week, tracking matches store orders, first hooks ranked by CAC | Tracking still mismatched or no creator briefs approved |
| Day 30 | At least two ads under $54.24 CAC and refunds steady | No ad under $90.40 CAC after four weeks of tests |
| Day 60 | Blended CAC at or under $54.24 while weekly spend rises | CAC above $90.40 for two straight weeks |
| Day 90 | Payback lands inside repeat orders at a $55 CAC or better; ten creators live | CAC at $100 or worse: payback never lands |
Each gate is checked on its day with the numbers in the daily and weekly reports. If the stop condition is true, the spend stops and nothing renews until we talk.
What exists, what’s missing, and the order that’s forced.
| Piece | Exists today | Missing | Forced order |
|---|---|---|---|
| creative | Reviews: 75 on UNSPOTTED 4X, 145 on PEP TALK | Hook library and one-variable test ads | 1st |
| creators | Pitch: Daily Skincare Products for People of Color | No roster yet; ten live by week six | 2nd |
| claims sheet | 94% dark spot result, tested on 30 people | One sheet listing what creators may say | Week 1 |
| landing pages | $172.00 3-Step Skincare System, 4 variants | One page per winning concept | 2nd |
| reporting | Free shipping over $75 shapes order value | Daily CAC view matched to store orders | Week 1 |
The order is forced on purpose: creative and creators come first because they are what moves CAC, and everything else waits for that data.
Every number, and where it came from.
| Figure | Where it came from | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 145 reviews on PEP TALK Barrier Repair Cream | https://lionpose.com/collections/hydrating-skincare | Fact |
| 75 reviews on UNSPOTTED 4X Acid Jelly Night Serum | https://lionpose.com/collections/hydrating-skincare | Fact |
| 60 day money-back guarantee | https://lionpose.com/pages/3-step-bundle | Fact |
| Product prices $30.00–$207.00 | product prices in the site product data (16 products), read 2026-10-08 | Fact |
| $113 average order · 40% margin · 1 repeat order | Placeholders, replaced in week one | Assumed |
| $54.24 target CAC | 0.6 of the $90.40 margin per customer | Calculated |
| $90.40 margin per customer | Price × (margin − discount), summed over the orders | Calculated |
| $24,000 of tests (96 ads × $250) | Danilo’s plan, matches Month one | Calculated |
| 0→10 creators in 6 weeks · 7 videos per creator a week | Danilo’s plan, matches Month one and the Creator engine | Proposed |
| $100,000 first budget split 45% / 24% / 19% / 12% | Danilo’s plan, re-set with the team in week one | Calculated |
| 10% hit rate · $300 a day per winner | Placeholders, replaced by the first 30 days of tests | Assumed |
| 303 creator videos a month at 10 creators | 10 creators × 7 videos a week × 52 ÷ 12 | Calculated |
| $5.74 per 1,000 views against a $1 target | Creator cost over the views the assumptions give | Calculated |
| $1,000 base pay · $50 bonus past 100,000 views | Danilo’s plan | Proposed |
| 1,500 median views · 4% breakout (10×) · 0.5% viral (750,000) | Placeholders, replaced by the first month of posts | Assumed |
| Pay bands $300–$600, $500–$1,000, $800–$1,500 | Danilo’s plan | Proposed |
Every figure on this page is listed here with where it came from. Fact means read on the site. Assumed and Proposed are Danilo’s own numbers, to be replaced in week one. Calculated is plain arithmetic on those, with the formula shown next to it.
Month one is where it starts.
Week one: I read your claims, set up the CAC view and brief the first creators. Twelve ads go live on Meta for the serum, SPF and cream, each testing one variable. By the end of the week you see which hook is closest to $54.24.
